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This is the raw list of Earth predictions. I suggest you add any you find here, before assigning them to particular Categories.
If you want to create a new prediction area, there's a simple template for you to use.
(The To Dos are just a reminder that something extra needs adding: like a page! I know: too many at the moment! Of course, you could help reduce the number...)
As this wiki serves, in part, as a primitive PredictionsRegistry, I intend to modify this list into a table as the blanks are filled in. This will show:
- the prediction (and links to the details: this is where the references will be going)
- a subjective measure of the insight implied by the prediction:
- trivial: as in 'the sun will rise tomorrow'
- obvious: anybody would make the same prediction, with a little thought.
- subtle: most could see prediction, with access to the right information.
- obscure: truly insightful, if it comes to pass!
- a subjective measure of the likelihood of the prediction
- Unlikely: trends suggest this prediction will not happen by 2040 (although a lot can happen in the next 30 years!)
- Open: the prediction may or may not happen
- Likely: the prediction appears to be coming true
- Confirmed: the prediction has already come true
Remember: the operative word here is subjective! I have deliberately refrained from using a numbered scale!
Predictions Registry for Earth:
At present there are 47 predictions listed
- 8 are confirmed
- 3 are likely
- 4 are Open
- 1 is unlikely
- 31 are still to be assessed (but that needn't stop you forming your own opinions)
Undetailed Predictions
The following have been listed, and are still to be assessed. The page references, where they occur, refer to the Bantam edition (1994). Where they don't occur...well, if you know 'em, then add 'em! It will help when I, or you get around to providing the details.
NB: This is the scratch list. If you have a prediction you want to add, put it here first. When you've added some detail (including a book reference), then you can place it in the formal listing below. |
Blatant and Obvious
These have already happened, some even as the book was being published. Bear in mind, too, that 1990 was the publication date: preparation of a book this size doesn't happen immediately.
Trends and Breakthroughs with Citation
Trends Needing Citation (I had the links but misplaced them)
Non-predictions (ie things that are predicted not to be)
Trends/Breakthroughs that currently show no sign of happening
- To Do(p144, 156) An upsurge in the use of Bicycles
- To Do(p136) Die offs due to UV radiation
Detailed Predictions
NB: Please do not add predictions to this table until you've added more detail. Add it to the list above. (But thanks for any input!) |
Category | Prediction | Insight | Status | References |
Internet | The Web as a vehicle for personal expression | Obvious | Confirmed | Check |
| Spam | Obvious | Confirmed | Check |
| People adjusting their web "shells" or search behavior to only admit views that fit their preconceptions. | Subtle | Likely | Check |
Political | Partition of the Soviet Union | Subtle | Confirmed | Check |
| The Helvetian War (see also the SecrecyUprising) | Obscure | Unlikely | |
| A worldwide uprising by educated citizens against secrecy. | Obscure | Open | Check |
| People displaced by rising sea levels forming their own state. | Obscure | Open | Check |
Social | Crotchety elders using high tech to harass kids | Obscure | Confirmed | - |
| Waves of Chinese tourists flooding the world. | Obscure | Confirmed | Check |
| Cooperation between environmentalists and hunters. | Obscure | Confirmed | - |
| Privacy as a vanishing commodity | Subtle | Likely | Check |
| 'Dazers' who use biofeedback to alter consciousness in druglike ways without using illegal substances. | Subtle | Open | Check |
Environment | Global warming and rising sea levels | Obvious | Confirmed | Check |
| Levees breaking and cities flooded on the Mississippi & Gulf Coast | Subtle | Confirmed | Check |
Technology | Image Plaques | Obvious | Likely | Check |
| Dirigibles for mass transportation | Subtle | Open | Check |
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