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This is the raw list of Earth predictions. I suggest you add any you find here, before assigning them to particular Categories.
If you want to create a new prediction area, there's a simple template for you to use.
(The To Dos are just a reminder that something extra needs adding: like a page! I know: too many at the moment! Of course, you could help reduce the number...)
As this wiki serves, in part, as a primitive PredictionsRegistry, I intend to modify this list into a table as the blanks are filled in. This will show:
- the prediction (and links to the details: this is where the references will be going)
- a subjective measure of the insight implied by the prediction:
- trivial: as in 'the sun will rise tomorrow'
- obvious: anybody would make the same prediction, with a little thought.
- subtle: most could see prediction, with access to the right information.
- obscure: truly insightful, if it comes to pass!
- a subjective measure of the likelihood of the prediction
- Unlikely: trends suggest this prediction will not happen by 2040 (although a lot can happen in the next 30 years!)
- Open: the prediction may or may not happen
- Likely: the prediction appears to be coming true
- Confirmed: the prediction has already come true
Predictions Registry for Earth:
At present there are 44 predictions listed
- 7 are confirmed
- 3 are likely
- 2 are Open
- 32 are still to be assessed (but that needn't stop you forming your own opinions)
Category | Prediction | Insight | Status | References |
Internet | The Web as a vehicle for personal expression | Obvious | Confirmed | Check |
| Spam | Obvious | Confirmed | Check |
| People adjusting their web "shells" or search behavior to only admit views that fit their preconceptions. | Subtle | Likely | Check |
Political | Partition of the Soviet Union | Subtle | Confirmed | Check |
Social | Crotchety elders using high tech to harass kids | Obscure | Confirmed |
| Privacy as a vanishing commodity | Subtle | Likely | Check |
| 'Dazers' who use biofeedback to alter consciousness in druglike ways without using illegal substances. | Subtle | Open | Check |
| Waves of Chinese tourists flooding the world. | Obscure | Confirmed | Check |
Environment | Global warming and rising sea levels | Obvious | Confirmed | Check |
| Levees breaking and cities flooded on the Mississippi & Gulf Coast | Subtle | Confirmed | Check |
Technology | Image Plaques | Obvious | Likely | Check |
| Dirigibles for mass transportation | Subtle | Open | Check |
Blatant and Obvious
These have already happened, some even as the book was being published. Bear in mind, too, that 1990 was the publication date: preparation of a book this size doesn't happen immediately.
Trends and Breakthroughs with Citation
Trends Needing Citation (I had the links but misplaced them)
Trends/breakthroughs that are desperately needed, now!
Non-predictions (ie things that are predicted not to be)
Trends/Breakthroughs that currently show no sign of happening
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