----

This is the raw list of Earth predictions. I suggest you add any you find here, before assigning them to particular Categories.

If you want to create a new prediction area, there's a simple template for you to use.

(The To Dos are just a reminder that something extra needs adding: like a page! I know: too many at the moment! Of course, you could help reduce the number...)

As this wiki serves, in part, as a primitive PredictionsRegistry, I intend to modify this list into a table as the blanks are filled in. This will show:

• the prediction (and links to the details: this is where the references will be going)
• a subjective measure of the insight implied by the prediction:
  • trivial: as in 'the sun will rise tomorrow'
  • obvious: anybody would make the same prediction, with a little thought.
  • subtle: most could see prediction, with access to the right information.
  • obscure: truly insightful
• a subjective measure of the likelihood of the prediction
  • Unlikely: trends suggest this prediction will not happen by 2040 (although a lot can happen in the next 30 years!)
  • Open: the prediction may or may not happen
  • Likely: the prediction appears to be coming true
  • Confirmed: the prediction has already come true

At present there are 44 predictions listed

• 4 are confirmed
• 1 is likely
• 39 are still to be assessed (but that needn't stop you forming your own opinions)

Blatant and Obvious

These have already happened, some even as the book was being published. Bear in mind, too, that 1990 was the publication date: preparation of a book this size doesn't happen immediately.

Trends and Breakthroughs with Citation

• To Do Purely mental control of electronic devices ( http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8826&print=true )
• "Dazers" who use biofeedback to alter consciousness in druglike ways without using illegal substances.
• To Do People adjusting their web "shells" or search behavior to only admit views that fit their preconceptions.
• To Do Crotchety elders using high tech to harass kids ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/staffordshire/4715526.stm )
• To Do Cooperation between environmentalists and hunters ( http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2006/0605.larson.html )
• Waves of Chinese tourists flooding the world.
• To Do Citizens catching news footage with personal cams: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/28042006/325/citizen-journalism-climbing-media-ladder.html
• To Do PopulationGrowth
• To Do LifeCaching: http://www.openthefuture.com/2006/05/alphatesting_the_participatory.html

Trends Needing Citation (I had the links but misplaced them)

• To Do Subvocal silent input devices.
• To Do Manmade black holes taken seriously
• To Do Crisis habitat arks
• To Do Eyeglass cams
• To Do Eyeglass VR overlays on real environments
• To Do Brain imaging->personality profiling
• To Do Geological-scale sculptures
• To Do Predation as a form of human population control
• To Do The Helvetian War (see also the SecrecyUprising)
• ImagePlaques
• Dirigibles for mass transportation
• To Do Mining Rubbish Tips
• To Do People displaced by rising sea levels forming their own state.
• To Do Increased environmental awareness giving rise to a new religion
• To Do Rise of vegetarianism
• To Do Littering as a felony.
• To Do Graviton lasers
• To Do Socially empowered youth

Trends/breakthroughs that are desperately needed, now!

• To Do Prediction registries
• To Do Disputation Arenas
• To Do Henchman Prizes for whistleblowers
• To Do A worldwide uprising by educated citizens against secrecy.

Non-predictions (ie things that are predicted not to be)

• To Do FusionPower
• To Do InterplanetaryTravel by people
• To Do Discovery of EarthlikePlanets

Trends/Breakthroughs that currently show no sign of happening

• To Do An upsurge in the use of Bicycles
• To Do Die offs due to UV radiation