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Predictions

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on May 15, 2013 at 9:11:57 pm
 

EARTH Author's Preface

As writers go, I suppose I'm known as a bit of an optimist, so it seems only natural that this novel projects a future where there's a little more wisdom than folly . . . maybe a bit more hope than despair.


Earth contains a lot of serious predictions about how civilisation may develop in the next thirty four years and below is raw list of Earth predictions. Add any you find here, before assigning them to particular Categories.

Note! Since this page is not frequently maintained, feel free to post very general "gosh wow" predictive hits as simple comments under "Non-Earth Predictions." (Even predictions from Earth, that you don't have time to fit into categories below.) Volunteers - to help maintain and update this site, are welcome.

 

About This Page

  • To Do Clear out the JunkYard 
  • To Do Trends/breakthroughs that are desperately needed, now!
    • If you want to create a new prediction area, there's a simple template for you to use. 
    • Henchman Prizes for whistleblowers
    • (p11) Resurrection of mammoths (rejuvenate the tundra!)Check 

 

As this wiki serves, in part, as a primitive PredictionsRegistry, I intend to modify this list into a table as the blanks are filled in. This will show:

  • the prediction, in form of an excerpt or original source.
    • Please do not copy entire passages word for word. Only note enough information to outline Brin's detail on a particular idea. This will also encourage others to read "Earth."
  • a subjective measure of the insight implied by the prediction:
    • trivial: as in 'the sun will rise tomorrow'
    • obvious: anybody might make the same prediction, with a little thought. (Though few did.)
    • subtle: some others could see this coming, with access to the right information.
    • obscure: truly insightful, if it comes to pass!
  • a subjective measure of the likelihood of the prediction
    • Disproved: there is clear evidence that this prediction will not occur.
    • Unlikely: trends suggest this prediction will not happen by 2040 (although a lot can happen in the next 30 years!)
    • Open: the prediction may or may not happen
    • Likely: the prediction appears to be coming true
    • Confirmed: the prediction has already come true
  • Reality
    • The current implementation of the idea. Try not to use "I" or your own personal opinion, and keep it as unbiased and concise as possible. If you would like to make note of your opinion, sign your quotes to discourage connection with Brin's ideas.
  • References
    • Citations of credible sources of the similarity to Brin's prediction with salient passages

 

Remember: the operative word here is subjective! I have deliberately refrained from using a numbered scale!

 

Predictions Registry From 'Earth'

Rating

At present there are 50 predictions listed for 'Earth'

  • 14 are confirmed
  • 8 are likely
  • 5 are Open
  • 2 are unlikely
  • 1 is disproved
  • 22 are still to be assessed (but that needn't stop you forming your own opinions)

 

Predictions:

NB: Please do not add predictions to this table until you've added more detail. Add it to the list below. (But thanks for any input!)

Maintenance: Over the next day or two, the contents of the above 'google drive' table will be getting moved to the native table below.

Category Prediction Insight Status*
 Environment  Population stabilising at 10 billion by 2050 Subtle
 Likely
  Global warming and rising sea levels  Obvious    Confirmed*
 

Mississippi River Levees breaking

Subtle
Confirmed*
  Mining Rubbish Tips  Subtle Likely
  Ozone Hole Repercussions Obvious Unlikely
  Geoengineering Obvious Open
Internet

Self-Expression via Web broadcast information

Obvious Confirmed*
Spam  Obvious Confirmed*
  Filtered Information Sources Subtle Likely*
Political

Partition of the Soviet Union

Subtle Confirmed*
  The Helvetian War Obscure Unlikely
  Secrecy Uprising Obscure Confirmed*
  Sea Nations Obscure Open*
Science Failure to discover Earthlike Planets Obscure Disproved*
Social

Elderly Neighborhood Watches

Obscure Confirmed
  Chinese Tourists Obvious Confirmed*
  Competition Cooperation Obscure Confirmed
  Privacy Commodity Subtle Likely*
  Dazers Subtle Open*
  Citizen Reporters / Filming Obvious Confirmed
  Prediction Registries Obscure Likely
  Disputation Arenas Obscure Open
  Bicycle Increase Obvious Confirmed
Technology

Image Plaques

Obvious Likely*
  Technology        Blur-weave Camouflage   Subtle  Likely  Check http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607630/BlurWeaveCamouflage    
  Technology        LifeCaching          Obvious           Confirmed       http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607650/LifeCaching    
  Technology        Laser bug zappers  Obscure           Confirmed       http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607631/BugZappers    
  Technology        Eyeglass cams       Obvious           Confirmed       http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607642/Eyeglass%20Cams    
  Technology        BioFeedback         Obvious           Confirmed       http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/47840344/BioFeedback    
  Technology        Subvocal    Obvious          Confirmed       Check http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/55172536/Subvocal%20Devices    

 

 

* Reference checks needed.

 

 

Predictions From 'Existence'

 

(Just starting this. Currently just placeholders for some of the more distinct predictions

Category Prediction Insight Status*
 Social
Mood Addiction
Obscure
Open*
  Smart Mobs Subtle Open*
  Autism Enablement Subtle Likely*
Political 'Ten Estates' Obscure Open*
       

 

* Reference checks needed.

 

 

Category Prediction Insight Status References Link  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

.

Environment Population stabilising at 10 billion by 2050 Subtle Likely  
 
Category Prediction Insight Status References Link  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

.

Environment Population stabilising at 10 billion by 2050 Subtle Likely  
 

.

Category

Prediction

Insight

Status

References

Link

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

.

Environment

Population stabilising at 10 billion by 2050

Subtle

Likely

 

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607655/PopulationGrowth

.

Environment

Global warming and rising sea levels

Obvious

Confirmed

Check

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607645/GlobalWarming

.

Environment

Mississippi River Levees breaking

Subtle

Confirmed

Check

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607651/MississippiLevees

.

Environment

Mining Rubbish Tips

Subtle

Likely

 

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607671/TipMining

.

Environment

Ozone Hole Repercussions

Obvious

Unlikely

 

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607653/OzoneHole

.

Environment

Geoengineering

Obvious

Open

 

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/38854364/Geoengineering

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