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Predictions

This version was saved 9 years, 6 months ago View current version     Page history
Saved by Charlene
on July 8, 2012 at 5:27:38 pm
 

EARTH Author's Preface

As writers go, I suppose I'm known as a bit of an optimist, so it seems only natural that this novel projects a future where there's a little more wisdom than folly . . . maybe a bit more hope than despair.

 


Earth contains a lot of serious predictions about how civilisation may develop in the next thirty four years, and below is raw list of Earth predictions. I suggest you add any you find here, before assigning them to particular Categories.

 

 

Note! Since this page is not frequently maintained, feel free to post very general "gosh wow" predictive hits as simple comments under "Non-Earth Predictions." (Even predictions from Earth, that you don't have time to fit into categories below.) Volunteers - to help maintain and update this site, are welcome.

 

About This Page

 

If you want to create a new prediction area, there's a simple template for you to use.

(The To Dos are just a reminder that something extra needs adding: like a page! I know: too many at the moment! Of course, you could help reduce the number...)

 

As this wiki serves, in part, as a primitive PredictionsRegistry, I intend to modify this list into a table as the blanks are filled in. This will show:

  • the prediction (and links to the details: this is where the references will be going)
  • a subjective measure of the insight implied by the prediction:
    • trivial: as in 'the sun will rise tomorrow'
    • obvious: anybody might make the same prediction, with a little thought. (Though few did.)
    • subtle: some others could see this coming, with access to the right information.
    • obscure: truly insightful, if it comes to pass!
  • a subjective measure of the likelihood of the prediction
    • Disproved: there is clear evidence that this prediction will not occur.
    • Unlikely: trends suggest this prediction will not happen by 2040 (although a lot can happen in the next 30 years!)
    • Open: the prediction may or may not happen
    • Likely: the prediction appears to be coming true
    • Confirmed: the prediction has already come true

 

Remember: the operative word here is subjective! I have deliberately refrained from using a numbered scale!

 

Predictions Registry for Earth:

At present there are 50 predictions listed

  • 14 are confirmed
  • 8 are likely
  • 5 are Open
  • 2 are unlikely
  • 1 is disproved
  • 22 are still to be assessed (but that needn't stop you forming your own opinions)

 

Predictions

NB: Please do not add predictions to this table until you've added more detail. Add it to the list below. (But thanks for any input!)

 

 

 

Undetailed Predictions

The following have been noted, and are still to be assessed. The page references, where they occur, refer to the Bantam edition (1994). Where they don't occur...well, if you know 'em, then add 'em! It will help when I, or you get around to providing the details.

 

NB: This is the scratch list. If you have a prediction you want to add, put it here first. When you've added some detail (including a book reference), then you can place it in the formal listing above.

 

 

Blatant and Obvious

These have already happened, some even as the book was being published. Bear in mind, too, that 1990 was the publication date: preparation of a book this size doesn't happen immediately.

 

 

Trends and Breakthroughs with Citation

 

Trends Needing Citation (I had the links but misplaced them)

 

Trends/breakthroughs that are desperately needed, now!

  • To Do Henchman Prizes for whistleblowers
  • To Do (p11) Resurrection of mammoths (rejuvenate the tundra!)Check

 

Non-predictions (ie things that are predicted not to be)

 

 

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