EARTH Author's Preface
As writers go, I suppose I'm known as a bit of an optimist, so it seems only natural that this novel projects a future where there's a little more wisdom than folly . . . maybe a bit more hope than despair.
Earth contains a lot of serious predictions about how civilisation may develop in the next thirty four years and below is raw list of Earth predictions. Add any you find here, before assigning them to particular Categories.
Note! Since this page is not frequently maintained, feel free to post very general "gosh wow" predictive hits as simple comments under "Non-Earth Predictions." (Even predictions from Earth, that you don't have time to fit into categories below.) Volunteers - to help maintain and update this site, are welcome.
About This Page
- To Do Clear out the JunkYard
- To Do Trends/breakthroughs that are desperately needed, now!
- If you want to create a new prediction area, there's a simple template for you to use.
- Henchman Prizes for whistleblowers
- (p11) Resurrection of mammoths (rejuvenate the tundra!)Check
As this wiki serves, in part, as a primitive PredictionsRegistry, I intend to modify this list into a table as the blanks are filled in. This will show:
- the prediction, in form of an excerpt or original source.
- Please do not copy entire passages word for word. Only note enough information to outline Brin's detail on a particular idea. This will also encourage others to read "Earth."
- a subjective measure of the insight implied by the prediction:
- trivial: as in 'the sun will rise tomorrow'
- obvious: anybody might make the same prediction, with a little thought. (Though few did.)
- subtle: some others could see this coming, with access to the right information.
- obscure: truly insightful, if it comes to pass!
- a subjective measure of the likelihood of the prediction
- Disproved: there is clear evidence that this prediction will not occur.
- Unlikely: trends suggest this prediction will not happen by 2040 (although a lot can happen in the next 30 years!)
- Open: the prediction may or may not happen
- Likely: the prediction appears to be coming true
- Confirmed: the prediction has already come true
- Reality
- The current implementation of the idea. Try not to use "I" or your own personal opinion, and keep it as unbiased and concise as possible. If you would like to make note of your opinion, sign your quotes to discourage connection with Brin's ideas.
- References
- Citations of credible sources of the similarity to Brin's prediction with salient passages
Remember: the operative word here is subjective! I have deliberately refrained from using a numbered scale!
Predictions Registry From 'Earth'
Rating
At present there are 50 predictions listed for 'Earth'
- 14 are confirmed
- 8 are likely
- 5 are Open
- 2 are unlikely
- 1 is disproved
- 22 are still to be assessed (but that needn't stop you forming your own opinions)
Predictions:
* Reference checks needed.
Predictions From 'Existence'
(Just starting this. Currently just placeholders for some of the more distinct predictions
Category |
Prediction |
Insight |
Status* |
Social
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Mood Addiction
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Obscure
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Open* |
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Smart Mobs |
Subtle |
Open* |
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Autism Enablement |
Subtle |
Likely* |
Political |
'Ten Estates' |
Obscure |
Open* |
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* Reference checks needed.
Category |
Prediction |
Insight |
Status |
References |
Link |
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Environment |
Population stabilising at 10 billion by 2050 |
Subtle |
Likely |
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Category |
Prediction |
Insight |
Status |
References |
Link |
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Environment |
Population stabilising at 10 billion by 2050 |
Subtle |
Likely |
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Category
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Prediction
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Insight
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Status
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References
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Link
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