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Predictions

Page history last edited by ar.fisk@... 10 years, 3 months ago

EARTH Author's Preface

As writers go, I suppose I'm known as a bit of an optimist, so it seems only natural that this novel projects a future where there's a little more wisdom than folly . . . maybe a bit more hope than despair.


Earth contains a lot of serious predictions about how civilisation may develop in the next thirty four years and below is raw list of Earth predictions. Add any you find here, before assigning them to particular Categories.

Note! Since this page is not frequently maintained, feel free to post very general "gosh wow" predictive hits as simple comments under "Non-Earth Predictions." (Even predictions from Earth, that you don't have time to fit into categories below.) Volunteers - to help maintain and update this site, are welcome.

 

About This Page

  • To Do Clear out the JunkYard 
  • To Do Trends/breakthroughs that are desperately needed, now!
    • If you want to create a new prediction area, there's a simple template for you to use. 
    • Henchman Prizes for whistleblowers
    • (p11) Resurrection of mammoths (rejuvenate the tundra!)Check 

 

As this wiki serves, in part, as a primitive PredictionsRegistry, I intend to modify this list into a table as the blanks are filled in. This will show:

  • the prediction, in form of an excerpt or original source.
    • Please do not copy entire passages word for word. Only note enough information to outline Brin's detail on a particular idea. This will also encourage others to read "Earth."
  • a subjective measure of the insight implied by the prediction:
    • trivial: as in 'the sun will rise tomorrow'
    • obvious: anybody might make the same prediction, with a little thought. (Though few did.)
    • subtle: some others could see this coming, with access to the right information.
    • obscure: truly insightful, if it comes to pass!
  • a subjective measure of the likelihood of the prediction
    • Disproved: there is clear evidence that this prediction will not occur.
    • Unlikely: trends suggest this prediction will not happen by 2040 (although a lot can happen in the next 30 years!)
    • Open: the prediction may or may not happen
    • Likely: the prediction appears to be coming true
    • Confirmed: the prediction has already come true
  • Reality
    • The current implementation of the idea. Try not to use "I" or your own personal opinion, and keep it as unbiased and concise as possible. If you would like to make note of your opinion, sign your quotes to discourage connection with Brin's ideas.
  • References
    • Citations of credible sources of the similarity to Brin's prediction with salient passages

 

Remember: the operative word here is subjective! I have deliberately refrained from using a numbered scale!

 

Predictions Registry From 'Earth'

Rating

At present there are 50 predictions listed for 'Earth'

  • 14 are confirmed
  • 8 are likely
  • 5 are Open
  • 2 are unlikely
  • 1 is disproved
  • 22 are still to be assessed (but that needn't stop you forming your own opinions)

 

Predictions:

 

 

Category Prediction Source Insight Status*
 Environment      Population stabilising at 10 billion by 2050 Earth Subtle
 Likely
Global warming and rising sea levels  Earth Obvious     Confirmed*

Mississippi River Levees breaking

Earth Subtle
Confirmed*
 Mining Rubbish Tips  Earth Subtle Likely
Ozone Hole Repercussions  Earth Obvious Unlikely
  Geo-engineering  Earth Obvious Open
Internet  

 Self-Expression via Web broadcast information

Earth Obvious Confirmed*
Spam   Earth Obvious Confirmed*
Filtered Information Sources  Earth Subtle Likely*
Political    

 Partition of the Soviet Union 

Earth Subtle Confirmed*
The Helvetian War  Earth Obscure Unlikely
Secrecy Uprising  Earth Obscure Confirmed*
Sea Nations Earth Obscure Open*

Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

Earth Subtle Confirmed*

Ten Estates

Existence Obscure Open*
Science Failure to discover Earthlike Planets Earth Obscure Disproved*
Social           

Elderly Neighborhood Watches

Earth Obscure Confirmed
Chinese Tourists Earth Obvious Confirmed*
Competition Cooperation Earth Obscure Confirmed
Privacy Commodity Earth Subtle Likely*
Dazers Earth Subtle Open*
Citizen Reporters / Filming Earth Obvious Confirmed
Prediction Registries Earth Obscure Likely
Disputation Arenas Earth Obscure Open
Bicycle Increase Earth Obvious Confirmed

Future Religions

 
Earth Subtle Likely
Fan Driven Film Editing Earth Obvious Confirmed
Self-Reliance                Earth Obscure Likely
Mood Addiction Existence Obscure Open*
Smart Mobs Existence Subtle Open*
Autism Enablement Existence Subtle Likely*
Technology      

Image Plaques

Earth Obvious Likely*
Blur-weave Camouflage Earth Subtle Likely*
LifeCaching Earth Obvious Confirmed
Laser bug zappers Earth Obscure Confirmed
Eyeglass cams Earth Obvious Confirmed
BioFeedback Earth Obvious Confirmed
Subvocal  Devices Earth Obvious Confirmed*
Space Debris Capture Existence Obvious Likely*
Transport

Dirigibles for mass transportation

Earth Subtle Open*
Liftgas Existence Obvious Open*
Train towed Dirigibles Existence Subtle Open*

 

* Reference checks needed.

 

 

Predictions From 'Existence'

 

(Just starting this. Currently just placeholders for some of the more distinct predictions

Category Prediction Insight Status*
 Social
Mood Addiction
Obscure
Open*
  Smart Mobs Subtle Open*
  Autism Enablement Subtle Likely*
Political 'Ten Estates' Obscure Open*
       

 

* Reference checks needed.

 

 

Category Prediction Insight Status References Link  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

.

Environment Population stabilising at 10 billion by 2050 Subtle Likely  
 
Category Prediction Insight Status References Link  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

.

Environment Population stabilising at 10 billion by 2050 Subtle Likely  
 

.

Category

Prediction

Insight

Status

References

Link

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

.

Environment

Population stabilising at 10 billion by 2050

Subtle

Likely

 

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607655/PopulationGrowth

.

Environment

Global warming and rising sea levels

Obvious

Confirmed

Check

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607645/GlobalWarming

.

Environment

Mississippi River Levees breaking

Subtle

Confirmed

Check

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607651/MississippiLevees

.

Environment

Mining Rubbish Tips

Subtle

Likely

 

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607671/TipMining

.

Environment

Ozone Hole Repercussions

Obvious

Unlikely

 

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607653/OzoneHole

.

Environment

Geoengineering

Obvious

Open

 

http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/38854364/Geoengineering

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