David Brin has written extensively about the need to make success or failure of prediction a criterion for gaining credibility in society.  After all, what could be a more significant indicator of usefulness than determining who is right more often?  Certainly, for example, those who saw the present economic crisis coming ought to rise in influence, yes? 

Brin is a member of several consortia that are looking into this concept. For example, a group exploring the pros and cons of Prediction Markets.   

To whatever extent that prediction  ... and outcomes analysis ... become more extensively used in decision making, this might be counted as a successful trend forecast by Brin.