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Page history last edited by ar.fisk@... 14 years, 8 months ago


Exosphere: The World Predictions Registry is proud to present our twenty-fifth annual Prognostication Awards, for accomplishments in the fields of trend analysis,  meteorology, economic forecasting  and whistle blowing...

For some time a debate has raged in our portion of the Net over the purpose of the registry. Are we here simply to collate the projections of varous experts, so that over time those with the best accuracy scores may 'win' in some way? Or should our objective be something more far-reaching?



Status: Likely

David Brin has written extensively about the need to make success or failure of prediction a criterion for gaining credibility in society.  After all, what could be a more significant indicator of usefulness than determining who is right more often?  Certainly, for example, those who saw the present economic crisis coming ought to rise in influence, yes? 


Brin is a member of several consortia that are looking into this concept. For example, a group exploring the pros and cons of Prediction Markets.   


To whatever extent that prediction  ... and outcomes analysis ... become more extensively used in decision making, this might be counted as a successful trend forecast by Brin.



While some interest is being shown in the concept, and the like of people like Warren Buffett have gained plaudits for economic forecasting, it is still to gain widespread acceptance.


The inaugural WPR awards are scheduled for 2014. Writing in 2009, there should be time to put your nominations in.

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